Tuesday, 30 May: An arithmetic trap

The first two editions of "The Hobbit" scheduled the encounter with the trolls on the last day of May, which was originally meant to be 31 May according to the Gregorian calendar but shifted to 30 May when Tolkien decided that the Shire Reckoning had to be retconned into the book (where May, like all months, has 30 days). Next, he went at stakes to align the lunar phases, i. e. a "waning" moon described on 30 May and "a broad silver crescent" on midsummer's eve. 

Bilbo put his little hand into William's huge pocket:
Illustration by Évelyne Drouhin, 1969

John Rateliff, in "The History of the Hobbit", has published several sets of notes in which we witness Tolkien repeatedly pondering how to reconcile these two observations. He has not interpreted them thoroughly from an astronomical point of view, that's why I have done it in "The Moon in 'The Hobbit'". The entire discussion takes up a whole chapter in the book but briefly, the result is as follows

In the whole discussion, Tolkien consistently committed two errors, one minor, the other significant: (1) He assumed the "broad silver crescent" to be 3 or 4 days old. Check it out tonight, the moon is currently 4 days old. You will see that there is still some way to go until the crescent is really broad, say, to the 6th day. (2) Inexplicably, he assigned to the period of a lunation (full moon to full moon) the rather biblical value of 28 days instead of correct 29.5 days. This value, as unfounded as it is, seems to be a zombie of English folklore - even the BBC perpetuates it till today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/ks3/science/environment_earth_universe/astronomy_space/revision/6/

Unfortunately, both his errors added up to a calamity from which Tolkien found no escape: his "arithmetic trap", as I have called it in my analysis. Whenever he tried to calculate backwards from Midsummer Eve to the encounter with the trolls, he got a new moon for this very night - irreconcilable with the waning moon he had described!

We have seen as we went through the 1960 timetable that his problem would have been solved if only he had applied the astronomically correct values. Even when he decided in 1966 to retain 30 May as the day of the troll encounter, it would have been enough to exchange one character: substitute "waning" with "waxing". But since it never occurred to him to check his aberrant premises, his ultimate emergency escape - as published in the 1966 Hobbit and ever since - was to simply camouflage the problem and hope it would remain unnoticed: The "waning" became a "wandering" moon, "tomorrow will be June" mutated into "soon it will be June", and from then on, the troll encounter had no specific date any more. 

Of course, this was of no help when it came to that other discrepancy: from 30 May or whatever other day in late May on, the Company would still have two sloppy weeks ahead to crawl to the Ford of Bruinen that is otherwise a mere three day-trips away.

Friday, 26 May: A starry, moonless night

A new moon over Middle-earth

On this day, in 2941 T. A., a new moon passes over Middle-earth.

This may not seem like news worth recording. But it is, as we will see in a few days. For Tolkien's failure to recognise this bit of trivia sent him into what I called "an arithmetic trap" from which he found no escape - to the detriment of the finally published, 1966 "Hobbit".

Wednesday, 24 May: Straining Elrond's hospitality

Arrival in Rivendell. Illustration by Horus Weber for
the first German edition of "The Hobbit", 1957.

After a journey of 27 days, the Company arrives in Rivendell on this day in 2941 T.A., according to Tolkien's 1960 timetable. He notes that the progress across the final 12 miles was slow and difficult and it was already near nightfall when at last they reached the path that leads to Rivendell. The night was moonless and starry, as might be expected, since we are close to new moon.

I think you will agree that the 1960 timetable is a solid concept, both with regard to internal consistency and, though unintentionally, with the phases of the moon as derived from data in the published "Hobbit" (set down in detail in my "The Moon in 'The Hobbit'"). If criticism ought to be applied, it is this that Tolkien was straining Elrond's hospitality beyond all measure because the familiar fortnight that the Dwarves would spend in Rivendell has here expanded into two and a half fortnights: Tolkien was adamant that the departure from Rivendell on Midsummer's Day should be retained. Also, for some reason, the obvious solution to postpone the Unexpected Party by a month was never an option in spite of Bilbo's aberrant reference to "that May morning long ago" in "The Hobbit", chap. VIII.

We may wonder what the 1960 Rivendell chapter would have looked like if Tolkien had continued it: Was the stay so long because Gandalf went away on a different mission and no one wanted to leave before his return? Would other Elves have been introduced: Elladan and Elrohir, Glorfindel or Erestor? Would Bilbo in this version have first met young Estel/Aragorn? Alas, at this point, both the timetable and the entire project of retconning the "Hobbit" into the "Lord of the Rings" came to an abrupt halt. The reason, according to John Rateliff, was that an unidentified beta-reader had seen the revisions and turned them down, which caused Tolkien to immediately abandon them. Rateliff does not speculate who this reader might have been, but I suspect without evidence that he was at least a close acquaintance of Rayner Unwin who may have been horrified by the prospect of taking up these revisions - that was long before preprints could be digitally uploaded with little effort, remember. This happened just a few years before the infamous copyright issue with Ace came up, which required a revision of the "Hobbit", anyway. But by that time, the 1960 material had apparently been misplaced and, pity, nothing of it entered the final version of 1966 that we all know.

That's why, from today on, we will have to switch to a different timetable to follow the 1966 "Hobbit" in which Bilbo, Gandalf and the Company are still traveling somewhere in western Rhudaur today, for whatever reason their progress might have been so slow. The encounter with the trolls is going to take place at the end of May - and two weeks before they will arrive in Rivendell, otherwise a mere five day trips away from the Trollshaws.